The Bvich Report

I've thought of analyses like these under much better circumstances than this season. The 2008 version of your beloved Astros are limping into the All-Star break with a record of 44-51, in last place for the first time since, well, I can ever remember. Even when they sucked last season and in 2000, I cannot remember them being in last place at this point of the season. Or ever really.

I do try to be Mr. Bright Side every once in a while though. While the Stros are 13 games out of first place entering the break, they are just 8.5 games out of the Wild Card and only half a game from climbing out of the NL Central cellar. Nothing that 36-10 can't pull off, right?

Anyway, I thought I would go ahead and give some grades out. Unfortunately, I'm probably going to sound more like an asshole calculus professor when grading. There will be no curve.

Disclaimer: I don't live in Houston. Or anywhere near there for that matter. I have seen four games life this year, and only two were at home. I have mlb.tv, but I just can't stare at my computer for 3 hours at a time. If there is any analysis that feels incomplete, it probably is. It wouldn't be if I still lived in Texas.

Offense:
Offensively, the Astros show some flashes of brilliance countered by lessons in futility. Lance Berkman continues his torrid MVP pace hitting .347 with 22 HRs and 72 RBIs. Plus, everyone seemed to forget about Carlos Lee come all star time. Despite having one more RBI than Berkman and one less home run while still hitting .299, he will not be vacationing in the Bronx this week. In addition, Hunter Pence is 3rd on the team in HRs and RBIs and Miguel Tejada, despite the fact that he has been slumpling lately, is still better than Adam Everett.

It isn't all rosy in this department though. Coming in to the season, Michael Bourne and Kaz Matsui were supposed to be the table-setters at the top of the lineup. Bourn is currently hitting .218 with a .273 On-Base Percentage, while Matsui, at $5.5 million a year, isn't doing anything that Mark Loretta wouldn't have done at second base. Plus, J.R. Towles is doing the unthinkable this season, making Brad Ausmus look like a decent offensive player.

Average these together, and you get, well, an average offense. C-

Defense:
Probably the bright spot on the team. The Astros have made the fewest number of errors in the NL with 47. Tejada's range at short is above average, and I can't tell that they are missing Adam Everett that much. Michael Bourn can cover some ground in center as well. I will have to give some points off for Carlos Lee. I saw the only triple hit to left at Minute Maid ever this year. B

Starting Rotation:
This is actually a tough one to grade. Not necessarily just for looking at the numbers though. The numbers are bad, but the question is how to grade against the expectations from the beginning of the season.

There is no doubt that most of the staff is having a subpar year. Nowhere is this more apparent than with Roy Oswalt. Expected to carry the staff this year, Oswalt has fought an injured hip all year while notching just seven wins and a 4.56 ERA. However, the rest of the rotation is not necesarily picking up slack.

Brandon Backe is the only other starter currently on the roster to pitch over 80 innings, coming up with five wins. Shawn Chacon went from throwing every fifth day to throwing his boss on the floor. Wandy Rodriguez has pitched well, but has missed multiple starts due to injury. Runelvys Hernandez and Jack Cassell have filled in for starts here and there, but what can you expect from them.

Of course, I don't think anybody expected the rotation to pitch any better than this. In fact, when Wandy Rodriguez is your number two starter, expectations are low. Therefore, I will give the rotation: C

Bullpen:
There is Jose Valverde. A 3.80 ERA with 24 saves in 25 chances. With the exception of a rocky stretch to start the season, he has been everything that the team hoped for. Chris Sampson has also been a bright spot. Since moving to the bullpen at the end of May, Sampson has given up five earned runs in 25+ innings pitched. In addition to this, Tim Byrdak and Geoff Geary are putting up decent numbers. Doug Brocail should not be a Major League setup man, but is doing okay in that role. Not great, but okay. Rejoice though, because Oscar Villareal was finally placed on waivers, about half a season after he should have been.

My thoughts on the bullpen are the same as the rotation. I didn't buy all the talk at the beginning of the year that it would be a great pen. Outside of Valverde, I didn't see too many strengths. In addition to this, the lack of good starting pitching has led to more innings for the pen. Therefore, I really didn't expect any more than this out of them. C

Coaching:
Finally, somewhere I can pile on. I'm not ready to completely judge Cecil Cooper. He needs more than half a season before I will label him an incompetent manager. I don't think Connie Mack could win with this ballclub. It's hard to make chicken salad out of chicken shit.

That said, when Richard Justice says that players are unhappy with him and pitching coach Dewey Robinson, then something may be wrong in the clubhouse. As far as Robinson is concerned, if your ace goes to a coach not employed by your team for advice, you should be watching out for a pink slip.

Would winning cure this attitude? Probably. But until they do win, I have to assume that players being unhappy with management cannot help a baseball club. D

Summary: I do hate saying this, but I just don't expect a magical run like in '04 or '05. The offense just doesn't click without a work-in-progress at the top of the order, and the rotation just doesn't have the arms. I had always wondered what the Stros would be like without Clemens and Pettitte. I think we are looking at that. I hope I'm wrong, but don't expect a Wild Card berth in '08.

Labels: all star, astros, baseball, berkman, grade, oswalt